Airline Bookings Drop by Over 70% Amid Rising Trade Tensions
Air travel between Canada and the United States is experiencing a dramatic decline, with new data revealing that flight bookings have plummeted by over 70% amid President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war with Canada.
A recent analysis by aviation analytics company OAG indicates that the number of passengers flying between the two countries has dropped significantly, signaling a major shift in cross-border travel behavior.
The data, reported by The Guardian UK, suggests that airline capacity has been reduced through October 2025, with the steepest cuts expected during July and August, which are typically peak travel months.
Shocking Figures: 70%+ Drop in Passenger Bookings
OAG’s analysis compared available flight bookings from March 2024 to March 2025, specifically examining reservations for the six-month period between April and September 2025. The findings are alarming:
🔹 Passenger bookings on Canada-to-US routes have declined between 71% and 76% compared to the same period last year.
🔹 More than 320,000 airline seats have been removed from flights between Canada and the US through October 2025.
🔹 Peak travel months (July and August) will see the highest reductions, with 3.5% fewer available seats than in previous years.
Despite these capacity cuts, the decline in demand is even more severe, with travel experts suggesting that Canadian travelers are choosing not to fly to the US at all.
“The current capacity reductions by airlines do not even begin to cover the steep drop in demand. Canadian travelers seem hesitant to book flights to the US, likely due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff war,” the report stated.
Why Are Canadians Avoiding US Travel?
Experts attribute this sharp decline in travel to a combination of economic and political factors, primarily linked to Trump’s escalating tariff war with Canada. The recent trade disputes between the two nations have created a climate of uncertainty, making many Canadians hesitant to book flights to the US.
Several key factors contributing to the travel collapse include:
1. Trump’s Tariff Policies & Economic Uncertainty
The trade tensions between the US and Canada have created economic instability, causing many Canadians to rethink their spending—especially on non-essential travel.
2. Declining Airline Capacity
With airlines removing seats from flights and reducing the number of scheduled flights, fewer travel options are available, making it more difficult for Canadians to visit the US.
3. Rising Travel Costs
A weaker Canadian dollar, coupled with rising airfare prices, has made trips to the US less attractive for Canadian travelers.
4. Political Tensions & Anti-Trump Sentiment
Many Canadian travelers feel alienated by Trump’s aggressive trade policies and anti-Canada rhetoric. This has led to a consumer boycott of US destinations, with Canadians choosing to travel elsewhere instead of supporting the US economy.
5. Uncertainty Around Future Tariffs
With no clear resolution to the tariff disputes, many Canadians fear additional economic fallout, leading them to postpone or cancel travel plans to the US altogether.
Canadian Government’s Response: “A Direct Attack on Our Workers”
Reacting to the latest round of tariffs imposed by Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the US administration, calling the move a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.
Carney warned that these tariffs would have serious economic consequences, not just for Canada, but also for American businesses that rely on cross-border trade and tourism.
“These tariffs are not just hurting Canadian industries—they are also damaging American businesses that depend on strong economic ties with Canada. This kind of trade war benefits no one,” Carney stated.
Canadian government officials have also hinted at potential retaliatory measures, which could further impact travel, trade, and economic relations between the two countries.
The Future of Canada-US Travel: What’s Next?
As tensions continue to escalate, analysts predict that:
🔸 Airline capacity reductions may continue into 2026, depending on how long the tariff war lasts.
🔸 More Canadians will opt for alternative travel destinations, favoring Europe, Mexico, or domestic tourism over the US.
🔸 The travel industry may experience long-term shifts, with airlines potentially rerouting flights and focusing on other international markets.
Travel industry insiders believe that a resolution to the trade war could help restore confidence and bring travel numbers back to normal, but for now, the outlook remains highly uncertain.
A Disrupted Travel Market
The collapse of air travel between Canada and the US highlights the far-reaching impact of political and economic decisions on global travel.
With over 70% of Canadian travelers avoiding US trips, airlines are being forced to adjust capacity, while businesses that depend on tourism revenue are facing financial strain.
Until there is a breakthrough in trade negotiations, the Canada-US travel market will remain unstable, with many Canadians choosing to spend their money elsewhere.
