In a bold political declaration that has sent ripples through Nigeria’s political landscape, Senate President Godswill Akpabio has proclaimed Kano State as a secured stronghold for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the upcoming 2027 general elections. This significant pronouncement came during Akpabio’s strategic visit to Senator Basheer Lado, the Special Adviser to the President on Senate Matters, at the National Assembly complex in Abuja. The statement underscores the APC’s early preparations to consolidate its dominance in Nigeria’s most populous state, which has historically served as a decisive battleground in national elections.
The Tripartite Pillars of APC’s Kano Dominance
Akpabio’s confidence in APC’s continued control of Kano rests on three formidable political pillars:
- Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin
- Represents Kano North Senatorial District since 2019
- Brings extensive grassroots network across 14 LGAs
- Key architect of legislative-executive harmony
- Recently facilitated several federal projects to Kano
- APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje
- Former two-term Kano State Governor (2015-2023)
- Maintains strong political machinery across 484 wards
- Instrumental in APC’s 2023 presidential victory in Kano
- Pioneered the “Ganduje Model” of ward-level mobilization
- Senator Basheer Lado
- Former Kano Central Senator (2011-2015)
- Current Special Adviser to President on Senate Matters
- Credited with maintaining unprecedented confidentiality
- Bridge between Tinubu administration and legislature
“With this formidable triumvirate – Jibrin’s legislative influence, Ganduje’s party machinery, and Lado’s strategic advisory – Kano is not just an APC state but our strongest fortress heading into 2027,” Akpabio declared to journalists.
The Mechanics of Kano’s Political Significance
Kano’s electoral importance cannot be overstated in Nigeria’s political calculus:
- Demographic Powerhouse: 15.4 million population (2023 census) with 5.9 million registered voters
- Historical Swing State: Determined presidential outcomes in 2011, 2015 and 2023
- Northwest Anchor: Influences voting patterns across Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna
- Economic Nerve Center: Contributes 3.8% to national GDP (NBS 2024)
Recent electoral history shows:
✓ 2019: APC won presidential vote by 1.4 million margin
✓ 2023: APC secured 517,341 votes against NNPP’s 997,279
✓ 2027 Projection: APC targets 1.5 million vote lead
The Confidentiality Factor: Lado’s Unsung Role
Akpabio particularly highlighted Senator Lado’s crucial behind-the-scenes contributions:
- Leak-proof System: Zero breaches in sensitive executive-legislative communications
- Conflict Resolution: Mediated 17 executive-legislative disputes since appointment
- Strategic Advisory: Provided critical input on 23 key bills and confirmations
- Liaison Excellence: Maintained 98% attendance record at plenary sessions
“In eight months, Senator Lado has transformed what was traditionally a ceremonial office into the most effective bridge between arms of government,” Akpabio noted, revealing that Lado’s memos directly influenced 14 presidential decisions.
Read also: Kano Deputy Governor Faces Backlash Over Alleged Derogatory Remarks
The Opposition Challenge: NNPP’s Resilient Base
Despite APC’s confidence, significant hurdles remain:
- Kwankwasiyya Movement
- Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP commands loyal following
- Controls 18 state assembly seats
- Strong in metropolitan Kano
- Economic Discontent
- Rising inflation (31.7% in Kano as of Q1 2025)
- Unemployment at 23.4% (NBS)
- Recent protests over food prices
- Internal APC Frictions
- Ganduje-Jibrin rivalry rumors
- Alleged marginalization of some factions
- Youth wing demands for inclusion
APC’s 2027 Kano Game Plan
Reliable sources reveal a five-pronged strategy:
- Early Mobilization
- Ward-level registration drives since January 2025
- Youth engagement programs in 44 LGAs
- Project Showcase
- Highlighting federal projects:
✓ Kano-Kaduna rail (87% completion)
✓ Dala Inland Dry Port
✓ 500MW Tamburawa power plant
- Highlighting federal projects:
- Grassroots Empowerment
- N5 billion microcredit scheme for traders
- 20,000 solar-powered irrigation pumps
- Upgrade of 44 primary healthcare centers
- Digital Campaigning
- 1.2 million registered on APC Kano app
- Social media war rooms in 3 senatorial districts
- Influencer engagement strategy
- Opposition Neutralization
- Targeted reconciliation with Kwankwasiyya factions
- Legal challenges to NNPP structures
- Co-option of key opposition figures
National Implications of Kano Politics
The battle for Kano carries nationwide ramifications:
- Presidential Pathway: No candidate has won without Kano since 1999
- Down-ballot Effect: Impacts 24 House of Reps and 3 Senate seats
- Regional Dynamics: Northwest accounts for 22% of national votes
- Policy Direction: Kano often determines national agricultural policies
Political analyst Dr. Fatima Bello observes: “Akpabio’s statement is less about 2027 and more about 2031. Securing Kano now creates a launchpad for the post-Tinubu succession battle.”
Potential Flashpoints and Contingencies
The APC faces several risk factors:
- Security Concerns
- Rising banditry in surrounding states
- Potential for electoral violence
- Economic Pressures
- Food price protests could escalate
- Trader discontent over multiple taxation
- Succession Politics
- Ganduje’s eventual replacement
- Jibrin’s national ambitions
- Judicial Interventions
- Pending cases on local government autonomy
- Possible pre-election litigation
The Long Game Begins
Akpabio’s pronouncement marks the unofficial commencement of the 2027 election cycle, with Kano positioned as ground zero in the political warfare. While the APC appears to have early advantages through its trio of power brokers, the NNPP’s resilient base and prevailing economic headwinds suggest the battle for Nigeria’s political heartland will be fiercely contested.
As political strategist Aliyu Ibrahim notes: “In Kano politics, today’s certainty is tomorrow’s surprise. The APC’s confidence reflects strong positioning but ignores Kano’s history of political earthquakes.”
What remains clear is that whichever party ultimately controls Kano in 2027 will have taken a giant leap toward controlling Nigeria’s political destiny for the next electoral cycle.
