As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, the political landscape is heating up with strategic alliances, fierce rivalries, and divergent opinions about the fate of key players. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) leader Rabiu Kwankwaso are at the center of this high-stakes political drama. Will the opposition unite to challenge Tinubu’s dominance, or will the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) maintain its grip on power? Here’s a deep dive into the unfolding dynamics.
The Opposition’s Quest for Unity
The 2023 elections exposed the weaknesses of a divided opposition, as Tinubu emerged victorious despite a three-way split among Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso. Since then, there has been growing recognition of the need for a united front to unseat the APC in 2027.
Ibrahim Abdullahi, Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), believes that better internal conflict management could have kept Obi and Kwankwaso within the PDP fold, potentially altering the 2023 outcome. He revealed that discussions are underway to form a formidable alliance ahead of 2027.
However, not everyone is optimistic. Activist lawyer Deji Adeyanju warns that even a united opposition may struggle against Tinubu’s political machinery and Nigeria’s electoral system.
Calls for Broader Alliances
Some political analysts and stakeholders are advocating for a more expansive opposition coalition. Salihu Lukman, a former APC National Vice Chairman, has urged prominent figures like former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and Nasir El-Rufai to join forces with the opposition.
“Setting aside personal ambitions in favor of building a strong political party is the only way to challenge the APC’s dominance,” Lukman emphasized.
The APC’s Confidence and Caution
Within the ruling party, there is a mix of confidence and caution. While the APC acknowledges the opposition’s potential to regroup, it remains steadfast in its belief that Tinubu’s administration will deliver on its promises and retain public support.
Ahmed S. Aruwa, Kano APC Publicity Secretary, dismissed concerns about Tinubu’s re-election chances. He argued that Atiku’s political career is waning and that Kwankwaso’s influence in the North is overrated.
“Kwankwaso has no political party at the moment,” Aruwa stated. “His popularity in the North cannot compare to Tinubu’s economic reforms and war against insecurity.”
Analysts Weigh In: A Divided Outlook
Political analysts are divided on the likely outcome of the 2027 elections.
Abdullahi Abba: Leans toward an Atiku presidency, citing his vast network and cross-regional alliances. However, he warns that internal PDP dynamics, particularly the ambitions of figures like Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, could pose challenges.
Dr. Sa’id Dukawa: Predicts an all-out battle, with cross-carpeting and political alliances shaping the race. “2027 will be a game-changer,” he remarked.
Umar Ibrahim Umar: Highlights public dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s economic reforms, suggesting that hardship could jeopardize his re-election chances.
Public Sentiment: A Demand for Change
Nigerians remain divided, with many demanding a government that can address insecurity, economic instability, and corruption. Rising fuel prices and economic hardship have left many citizens disillusioned.
In Kano, some Keke Napep riders expressed frustration over the cost of living, with one stating, “We are looking for food. Who has time to vote?” Despite reports of crashing food prices in some Northern markets, skepticism about the current government persists.
The Northern Vote: A Decisive Factor
The North remains a critical battleground, with many voters yet to decide who will earn their support—or if they will vote at all. Tinubu’s economic policies, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies, have sparked widespread discontent.
“Now a liter of petrol goes for over ₦1,000, and it doesn’t even last,” lamented one Kano resident. This sentiment underscores the challenges Tinubu faces in retaining Northern support.
A Political Battle Royale
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria’s political terrain is set for intense maneuvering. Will the opposition unite to present a credible challenge, or will Tinubu’s reforms and political acumen secure him a second term? One thing is certain: Nigerians will have the final say, and their votes will hinge on tangible improvements in their daily lives.